Economic Recovery Controversy: Short or Long Term
As 2021 approaches closer by the day, hope for a quick rebound of the US economy and stock market are on everyone's wish list. Vaccines for the Coronavirus have started to circulate in the US starting this December 2020. Wells Fargo’s CEO, Charlie Scharf believed the economy would recover back to normalcy as the vaccines become more widely accessible to the general public in the early months of 2021 (Son).
During a press conference, Scharf mentioned how he was "far more confident" in the rise of the economy back to its pre-covid state. "The world that we're experiencing today is certainly far, far better economically than we thought it could've been sitting here three months or six months ago," Scharf said. "It's certainly quite possible that you'll see a very quick recovery as the vaccines get rolled out, given all the pent-up demand that exists." This aspiration for the future of the economy has given many businesses owners optimism (Son). Others, such as Stephen Stanely, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities, predict that the unemployment rate could return to the pre-covid level of 3.5% compared to the 14.7% peak that occurred in March in only a few months adding to the escalation of the economy (Hannon).
On the other hand, many economists believe the vaccine will help the US recover, but not rapidly as believed by Scharf and others. Many presume the historical declines in jobs, businesses, and investments, will prevent the US from making a quick, seamless reclamation (Hannon).
Another factor that could possibly affect the recovery rate of not just the United States but also the world economy has to do with the wealth of individual countries. Places like the US, UK, Japan, and the European Union have put forth much resources and money to buy and create the Covid vaccine. Nevertheless, poorer, developing countries do not have the funds or supplies to obtain this vaccine for their citizens. According to the Duke Global Health Innovation Centers' estimates, there will not be enough vaccinations supplied to the world's population until 2024. That is a vast amount of time that could play a role in the length of recovery pertaining to an individual country's economy. Micheal Pearce, the senior US economist at Capital Economics, states, "In terms of jobs, you're probably looking at least at another couple of years" (Hannon).
As of today, numbers continue to fluctuate across the country in specific areas, and it is still uncertain whether this recovery will be long or short-lived. As residents of our communities and the US as a whole, there are many things we can do to play a part in helping the recovery. Something as small as just supporting a local, small business can significantly impact the grand scheme of things. Even in these unforeseeable times, having hope and keeping others safe through social distancing can genuinely make a difference in a person's life and livelihood.